🐎 Trotting — EV+ Value analysis
The model compares the probability implied by the winning odds against the pool's betting percentage — finding overbacked and underbacked horses in every race.
ℹ️ How the model works
For every race we convert the winning odds into a probability (1 divided by the odds) and normalizes so that all horses together add up to 100%. That gives Model % — the market's combined assessment of the win chance.
Then we compare against Pick % — how large a share of the players in the pool (e.g. V75 or V64) picked the horse. The ratio becomes Value = Model % / Pick %. A value above 1 means the horse is backed less in the pool than its win chance justifies — a potential value bet. A value below 1 means overbacked.
The tags: BANKER = high win chance without being heavily overbacked. UPSET 💎 = a lightly backed horse with clear value. OVERBACKED ⚠️ = the horse is backed significantly more than the odds justify.
Note that the betting percentage moves right up to post time — the value is a snapshot, not a guarantee of payout.