🎫 Tipset — System suggestion
Ready-made system suggestions for Stryktipset, Europatipset, and Topptipset — in three price tiers. The model compares the probability implied by the odds against the Swedish public's picks and places the cover bets where the value is.
ℹ️ How the model works
The public bets with the heart — the model calculates with the head. For every match we convert the odds into a probability per outcome (1 divided by the odds) and normalizes so that 1 + X + 2 add up to 100%. That gives Model % — the market's assessment of the match.
Then we compare against Public % — how the Swedish public actually picked their coupons. The difference becomes the betting value in percentage points: excess value arises when the public's picks diverge from the probability implied by the odds. A selection the public underrates yields more correct picks per krona staked in the long run — and a bigger payout when it hits, since fewer share the winnings.
The systems are then built mathematically: bankers on the matches with the highest confidence, half-covers and full covers where the uncertainty (and the value) is greatest — optimized for maximum coverage per krona staked in three price tiers. The picks move right up to post time — the value is a snapshot and no guarantee of payout.